Forex Trading


gbpaud forecast

The central bank’s dovish stance is likely to weigh on the currency. The pullback in bets comes after cautious comments from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey last week. Bailey signalled that interest rates in the UK may have peaked, and that markets could be overestimating the scale of future hikes from the central bank. ‘We also discussed that, with monetary policy now in restrictive territory, we are closer to the point where it will be appropriate to pause interest rate increases to allow more time to assess the state of the economy. For instance, the US is set to receive highly important jobs data on Friday.

gbpaud forecast

The Australian Dollar found modest success in overnight trade at the start of the week, thanks to its status as a proxy currency for the Chinese economy, due to China and Australia’s close trading relationship. “Like in the US and the eurozone, expect RBA rate expectations and AUD to become significantly more sensitive to data releases from now on,” according to analysts at ING. “The UK economy is likely to enter recession in the third quarter of 2022 and remain there until the first quarter of 2023. Our forecast for year-on-year GDP growth is 3.5 per cent in 2022 and 0.5 per cent in 2023.

With the RBA meeting in the early hours of Tuesday morning, the weaker reading raised expectations of dovish forward guidance. The Pound Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate firmed on Monday as widespread risk aversion dented the Australian Dollar . The GBP/AUD currency pair has been in a long-term downward trend, but has traded higher in recent weeks on changing expectations surrounding inflation and interest rates in Australia and the UK and rising US-China tension. Look at the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis, and expert opinion before making any investment decision.

However, AUD failed to hold these modest gains and turned south as a souring market mood weighed on the risk-sensitive currency. CFDs are leveraged products, which means that you only need to deposit a percentage of the full value of the CFD trade in order to open a position. But with traditional trading, you buy the assets for the full amount. In the UK, there is no stamp duty on CFD trading, but there is when you buy stocks, for example. You can still benefit if the market moves in your favour, or make a loss if it moves against you. However, with traditional trading you enter a contract to exchange the legal ownership of the individual shares or the commodities for money, and you own this until you sell it again.

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The British Pound appears to have found support at a prior area of resistance from a descending trendline set from the October swing high versus the Australian Dollar. If the current pace holds, it will mark the first monthly loss since December. However, the currency pair’s technical posture appears bullish at the current view.

gbpaud forecast

Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Also – pivot points levels for Standard, Fibonacci, Camarilla, Woodie’s and Demark’s are supplied. forex trading glossary, learn about currency trading A bearish MACD cross below the centerline may weigh on short-term action, along with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level – which also coincides with the psychologically important level. That said, the 200-day SMA is on the verge of turning higher, signaling a shift in long-term momentum. A breakout from R1 ($1.1867) would support a move through R2 (1.1892) to bring R3 ($1.1948) and the 50-day EMA ($1.19588) into view.

Poor data from the UK retail sector kept pressure on Sterling on Tuesday. Although the British Retail Consortium’s retail sales monitor rose to 4.9% in February, analysts stated that much of the rise was due to inflation pushing up the price of goods being sold. At time of writing the GBP/AUD exchange rate was at around AU$1.7983, which was up roughly 0.7% from that morning’s opening figures. GBP/AUD saw some of its gains limited by a pullback in Bank of England rate hike bets, however. A return of global risk appetite also kept pressure on the pairing. Because of this, the market mood could sour, which would weigh heavily on the risk sensitive ‘Aussie’.


The GBP/AUD pair rebounded as the UK’s economic outlook improved, increasing the chance that the BoE would raise interest rates, while the Australian dollar came under pressure. Falling commodity prices, an economic slowdown in China and cuts to Australian interest rates all weighed on the Australian currency. The pair climbed to 2.16 in September 2015, its highest level since 2009, as the Chinese stock market crashed. The pair jumped to 2.53 in October 2008 as commodity prices collapsed during the global financial crisis, reducing the value of the Aussie against the pound. But the FX rate steadily declined in the wake of the crisis to a low of 1.46 in March 2013, as the RBA maintained higher interest rates than the BoE, making the dollar an attractive high-yielding investment. The Pound Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate made strong gains on Tuesday.

  • By 2024, inflation in the UK is expected to return to target levels set by the Bank of England.
  • GBPAUD selling zoneSeems like entering a resistance area, I rarely trade it but I know many do…
  • The Australian dollar recovered in the following year, trading around 1.60 to the pound by the end of 2016.
  • We do not make any representations or warranty on the accuracy or completeness of the information that is provided on this page.
  • Looking ahead, the focus is on the RBA interest rate decision.

CFDs attract overnight costs to hold the trades (unless you use 1-1 leverage), which makes them more suited to short-term trading opportunities. Stocks and commodities are more normally bought and held for longer. You might also pay a broker commission or fees when buying and selling assets direct and you’d need somewhere to store them safely. The GBP/AUD prediction from The Economy Forecast Agency showed the pair trading at 1.707 at the end of 2025 from 1.719 at the end of 2022, 1.744 at the end of 2023 and $1.637 at the end of 2024. The UK’s National Institute of Economic and Social Research issued a gloomy economic outlook on 3 August. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

GBP/AUD rate reflects economic turbulence

Economists forecast initial jobless claims to rise from 190k to 195k, which would continue to signal tight labor market conditions. Lowe also signalled that Australia may struggle to make a soft landing following a period of elevated interest rates. The Australian Dollar strengthened during Thursday’s session, as the ‘Aussie’s close ties to commodities appeared to grant it an advantage above other currencies. From here, dip buying for Sterling could have occurred, leading to the strengthening seen during Thursday’s session. With little in the way of impactful data releases, external factors appeared to be the core driver of movement for Sterling’s gains during the session. The crypto market has been considerably impacted this week following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish comments on Tuesday.

“However, given the dire economic outlook for the UK economy over the coming months, the pound could struggle to rise much further for now,” says Griffiths. Since the historic December low, the pound has bounced back better than expected, according to currency expert at The Currency Shop, Fiona Griffiths. Furthermore, recent high-level visits between Australia and Chinese leaders appeared to signify that trade embargoes against Australian products such as wine will be reconsidered. The AUD is what is known as a commodity currency, in that it aligns itself with the world prices of primary commodity products.

Looking ahead, the Pound Australian Dollar exchange rate could see further movement with the release of the latest inflation data for the world’s second largest economy. An expected softening of headline CPI in China could impact the ‘Aussie’. Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! “For ‘risk-on’ currencies like the AUD, NZD, and CAD, our analysis shows that risk appetite is more dominant over relative rate considerations,” according to analysts at Hong Kong-based HSBC. “Perhaps, this is because the market focus is shifting to what this inflation battle will mean for global economic activity. With a slowing global economy and growing focus on recession risks, ‘risk-on’ currencies should generally underperform ‘safe-haven’ currencies over the coming weeks and months, in our view.

Gold Price Forecast – Gold Markets Hang Onto the 200 Day EMA

Pound Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) Exchange Rate Rallies as UK Private Sector Returns to Growth The Pound Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate strengthened on Tuesday, following news… Looking ahead, the focus is on the RBA interest rate decision. Markets have largely priced in another quarter-point rate rise from the central bank, but will be looking for any hints about future policy decisions.

The forward guidance from the RBA came after the decision to raise interest rates by 25bps. The move was in line with forecasts and had largely been priced in, meaning that any positive impact on AUD was minimal. Meanwhile, the Pound failed to muster up much strength amid a lack of economic data.

GBP/AUD Forecast: Exchange Rate Tumbles as Bailey Speech … – TorFX News

GBP/AUD Forecast: Exchange Rate Tumbles as Bailey Speech ….

Posted: Mon, 06 Mar 2023 10:10:26 GMT [source]

Fusion Mediawould like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. There are no UK economic indicators for the markets to consider today. The lack of stats will leave the GBP/USD in the hands of market risk sentiment and China inflation numbers ahead of the US session. The latest Chinese inflation data on Thursday could pull AUD lower if it prints as forecast.

For instance, the latest US jobless claims printed above forecasts, pointing to signs that the Federal Reserve’s aggressive tightening cycle could be beginning to take effect. Because of this, investors engaged in profit taking, prompting weakness in the US Dollar. Adam has almost a decade of experience working in one of the UK’s leading currency brokers and has been… However, news that the new Northern Ireland trading rules could take more than two years to fully bed in seemed to have taken the wind out of Sterling’s sales. Additionally, geopolitical concerns contributed to a downbeat market mood, further hurting AUD. Russia has expressed concerns about the Black Sea grain deal, raising fears over the future of the agreement.

China’s February inflation is expected to slip to 1.9% after two rising for two consecutive months. Fears of deflation in the world’s second-largest economy could pull the ‘Aussie’ lower. Hawkish comments from BoE policymaker Catherine Mann underpinned the Pound, however. Speaking on Tuesday, Mann signalled that she would support further interest rate hikes from the central bank. At the time of writing, Coal traded at around US$182, a rise of roughly 1.1% from Thursday’s opening rates.

Forecast of the Pound Sterling to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD)

However, if policymakers indicate a possible pause in the central bank’s tightening cycle then AUD exchange rates could slump. The right trading strategy for the GBP/AUD pair will depend on your personal circumstances, risk tolerance and portfolio composition. You should do your own research to develop an informed view of the market. The inflation forecast was higher than the RBA previously indicated and the bank is expected to increase interest rates by another 50 basis points in its next review. Inflation in Australia has climbed to its highest level since the early 1990s, coming at 6.1% year on year in the June quarter. The British pound sterling has climbed to a three-week high against the Australian dollar despite the Reserve Bank of Australia raising interest rates on Tuesday, as heightened US-China tensions weighed on the Aussie.

gbpaud forecast

The Australian Dollar struggled for demand on Wednesday as the Reserve Bank of Australia conceded that it was now closer to pausing its aggressive cycle of interest rate increases. For the Australian Dollar, a thin data calendar means that external factors are likely to be the key driver of movement. However, these gains may have been capped by a tepid market mood. While investors appeared to be favouring riskier assets, the predominant mood was cautious. Because of this, the risk sensitive ‘Aussie’ may have seen some tailwinds, but it was likely capped by the cautious mood. However, adjusted expectations for Bank of England interest rate hikes may have capped the Pound’s gains.

The deal allowed Ukraine to export grain, thereby reducing food inflation and shortages. If the deal is not renewed, it could create fresh problems for the global food supply chain. Despite these comments from the NDRC, investors seemed worried about China’s growth prospects after the country announced an underwhelming growth target of 5% for 2023. This is the lowest target for decades, raising fears about the health of the world’s second-largest economy.

Days GBP to PKR Historical Data

As coal is one of Australia’s main exports, the stark jump in price likely assisted in bringing support to the ‘Aussie’. The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate suffered a sharp selloff on Wednesday after a larger-than-forecast decline in UK inflation dented Bank of England interest rate rise bets. If the RBA signals that more rate increases are likely, the ‘Aussie’ Dollar could climb.

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